A growing measles outbreak in Gaines County, Texas—24 cases so far in a county that voted 91 percent for Donald Trump—illustrates a grim irony.
Senate Republicans plan to vote today on anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to be the secretary of health and human services. If they seat him, it will be Republican families that suffer.
In the 1960s, measles struck 3–4 million US residents annually, leading to nearly 500,000 diagnoses, 48,000 hospitalizations, and 400–500 deaths. By 2000, measles cases had fallen to fewer than 100 per year, striking only when travelers—mostly unvaccinated US citizens—brought it home from abroad.
The reason is vaccination. The measles vaccine provides 97 percent protection (immunity) against infection. After its introduction in 1963, US cases dropped by roughly 90 percent within 10 years.
It is hard for the human mind to grasp how beneficial vaccines are. The Lancet estimates that since 1974, vaccines against 14 pathogens have saved 154 million lives. Measles vaccines accounted for more than 60 percent of those gains. That estimate does not include the smallpox vaccine, which eradicated a disease responsible for more deaths in the 20th century than all wars combined.
For decades, Kennedy has publicized small or nonexistent risks of vaccines to the point of frightening people away from the astronomical benefits.
Most infamously, in 1998, The Lancet published an article that falsely suggested a link between measles vaccines and autism. Kennedy stoked those fears—even as contrary evidence accumulated, even after The Lancet retracted that article in 2010, and even in 2011 after Salon retracted Kennedy’s 2005 article on the topic.
Kennedy promises that as secretary, he would approach vaccines without preconceived ideas. He promises that if someone showed him data indicating vaccines are safe, he would “apologize for any statements that misled people otherwise.” Kennedy’s record, however, shows that he clings to his preconceived ideas, regardless of the evidence.
In 2021, the Cochrane Collaboration—which Kennedy calls “the most prestigious scientific research organization”—examined studies covering 1.2 million children and found “no evidence of an increased risk of autism.” Kennedy kept claiming a link exists anyway, citing studies that were older and objectively inferior to those Cochrane reviewed. That is the very definition of unscientific advocacy.
Kennedy says he is not anti-vaccine but merely “asking uncomfortable questions.” This is absurd. The advocacy group he once ran celebrates anti-vaccine sentiment. It sells infant attire with the messages, “No Vax, No Problem” and “Unvaxxed, Unafraid.” In Senate hearings, Kennedy declined to denounce the organization or its messaging. He refused to say whether he still believes vaccines cause autism.
Such propaganda has suppressed support for vaccines and vaccination rates. The share of US adults who consider childhood vaccinations “very important” fell from 94 percent in 2001 to 84 percent in 2019. Public health officials’ handling of COVID-19 helped it fall further, to 69 percent in 2024. The share of adults who believe vaccines are worse than the diseases they prevent (!) has risen from 6 percent to 12 percent to 20 percent, respectively.
In many states, measles vaccination rates have fallen below the 92 percent threshold researchers argue is necessary to thwart outbreaks. Alaska and Wisconsin have statewide rates below 85 percent. Idaho’s is below 80 percent. One school district in Gaines County, Texas, has a vaccination rate of around 50 percent.
Twenty-two of the 24 cases in the Gaines County outbreak are children. At least two are under age 5. Nine resulted in hospitalization, some in intensive care. None had been vaccinated. Officials expect more cases.
The Senate may soon give an anti-vaccine activist the power to block life-saving vaccines. But Kennedy could do plenty of harm simply by using one of the most prominent public health platforms in the world to plant undue fears about vaccines.
The resulting harm would fall disproportionately on the children of Trump voters. Republicans are more receptive to anti-vaccine propaganda than Democrats. Thirty-one percent of Republicans believe vaccines are worse than the diseases; 5 percent of Democrats do.
If the Senate confirms Kennedy, more Republican parents will be visiting their kids in intensive care.
